All odds provided by Bovada.lv.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks -19.5 Pick: Jaguars +19.5
Whoa, so it is just Week 3 and we already have one of the largest point spreads the league has seen in years as the winless Jaguars head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks.
To put this game in perspective, the -19.5 (opened at -20) line is the highest since two 2007 games in which the New England Patriots were favored over the Eagles by -24.5 points and later in the season faced the Dolphins with -22.5 number. New England won the November game against Philadelphia, which was much closer than expected, 31-28. They also handled Miami in December of that season, beating them 28-7 failing to cover the -22.5. As you can see, in both of these examples, they did not cover the large number.
In some ways, the matchup in this game is irrelevant as double digit spreads in the NFL, especially as high as -20 are rarely covered by the favorite.
However, let’s make no mistake about it, Jacksonville is a terrible football team and they may be even worse this Sunday without leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. His backup options aren’t even worth mentioning in this column, and even if Jones-Drew did suit up, he would have little chance of breaking through Seattle’s ferocious defensive front.
The Jaguars are also playing their backup quarterback, Chad Henne who may actually be better than starter Blaine Gabbert anyway. The bad news is they both have been miserable throughout the first two weeks. Henne did manage to throw record the Jaguars first touchdown of the season last week in a 19-9 loss at Oakland.
All in all it looks like a severe beating is coming to Jacksonville – but not so fast. History is on our side for a cover, and it’s almost never a bad idea to grab an underdog getting close to +20. This is the NFL. The talent gap is much closer than college football even when the NFL’s worst team faces the best, which may be the case here.
Furthermore, Seattle runs an offense that is not conducive to blowouts. Russell Wilson is 30th in the league in passing attempts with the Seahawks relying on a power running game and excellent defense to power them to victories. This is no slight on Wilson, but Seattle just doesn’t need him to win games with his arm if they run their gameplan. Running the ball takes precious time off the clock for both teams in a game that will already likely be a low scoring affair.
Also, even though the Jags look down and out, it is only Week 2. They desperately don’t want to fall to 0-3 and have their season effectively finished, even though they know its inevitable. They will be playing their hearts out and perhaps the gigantic spread is some extra motivation. A fluke TD off a punt or kickoff return may be all Jacksonville needs to cover in this one.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins -1 Pick: Dolphins -1
If you read last week’s article, I suggested Miami +3 against the Colts in Indianapolis. The Fins won that game 24-20, and I like them again this week.
Sometimes you can see the games that make teams into contenders and last week may be the first step in Miami’s return to the national stage. This team is talented and full of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill matched Andrew Luck for production in the win and was more accurate. He also did not throw an interception. More importantly, receiver Mike Wallace got into the act and looked like the featured player that he was brought in to be when he was signed in the offseason. Running back Lamar Miller had a breakout of sorts, rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown in the win, as well. While I think the Colts are a bit overrated this year, this is still an epic win for this team, and they are truly starting to believe in themselves.
On the flip side, Atlanta comes into the game with a 1-1 record after barely hanging on against St. Louis last week, beating them 31-24 in the Georgia Dome. While Matt Ryan looked stellar picking apart the Rams secondary, mostly throwing to Julio Jones who had a monster 11-reception and 182 yard receiving day – it is the defensive performance that was so troubling.
Bradford shredded the Falcons defense in the second half as Atlanta got hit with multiple injuries. Linebacker Sean Witherspoon, defensive end Kroy Biermann, and top cornerback Assante Samuel all went down a halftime with injuries. Biermann’s season is over along with linebacker Sean Witherspoon. Assante Samuel is doubtful for Sunday.
The Falcons were not safe from injuries from on the offensive side either. Running back Steven Jackson will miss two to six weeks with a hip injury, forcing backups Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling into starting roles. Roddy White is also doubtful to play Sunday and has had minimal impact all season long nursing a high ankle sprain even when been on the field. Finally, Julio Jones torched the Rams last week, but is still recovering from a knee injury but is expected to play.
The lack of continuity on offense may be a problem for Atlanta, especially when they will likely be forced to pass because of the Dolphins stout run defense. Even if Steven Jackson was healthy, he would have a tough time getting through the superb run defense of Miami. Rodgers and Snelling will have a long day. Miami’s secondary is not great, but if they can limit Julio Jones, (I know this is not an easy feat) they should be able to stifle Atlanta’s attack.
Regardless, I still think Miami will put up points against the Falcons. Tannehill has shown he has the poise to sit back in the pocket and pick apart defenses if given adequate protection. The Falcons only have two sacks on the season and their defense line and linebacking core got worse last week due to injuries.
Miami should have no problem putting points on the board in this one if they execute their gameplan. Their defense should be able force the Falcons into being one dimensional if they can shut down the run game. I love the Dolphins chances of picking up a win in their first home game of the season.
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 Pick: Packers -2.5
This is probably the “squarest” pick of the week so far, meaning that the public is all over Green Bay in this game. However, I can’t argue with the masses when it comes to this matchup.
It’s the same old, same old for the Pack, despite losing a tough high scoring game in Week 1 to the 49ers. Last week, Rodgers dismantled the Redskins at Lambeau Field throwing for 480 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 38-20 rout of Washington. Green Bay gained nearly 600 yards of offense on the day, finishing with 580 yards.
It wasn’t all good news for Green Bay as they did get hit with a significant injury in the win. Rookie running back Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion on his first carry of the day and will be out for several weeks. James Starks takes over the primary rushing duties in his absence.
Cincinnati won an ugly game at Paul Brown Stadium against the Pittsburgh Steelers and I for one think they were lucky to get the win. The game was a miserable offensive performance for both teams, but it is worth noting that both the Steelers and Bengals defenses are among the best in the league and excelled against two stagnant offenses. The Bengals picked off Ben Roethlisberger to effectively seal the victory in the final minutes, winning 20-10.
The Bengals, which many “experts” tabbed as Super Bowl picks to start the season haven’t looked their best in the first two games. However, it is crucial to note they have faced two of the tougher defenses in the league in last week’s opponent in Pittsburgh and Week 1 at Chicago. The Packers secondary isn’t great, and All-Pro receiver A.J. Green should have a field day.
Aaron Rodgers can explode against any defense, but he will face a strong pass rush against Cincy’s defensive front. Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap will bring heavy pressure and will no doubt have an impact on this game. However, let’s remember that Rodgers shredded the 49ers star-studded All-Pro defense for 333 yards passing and three touchdowns in Week 1, despite losing the game, 24-28.
As I mentioned before, I think A.J. Green has a solid game, but I’m not sold on the rest of this offense, especially at quarterback. Perhaps I’m being too critical of Andy Dalton, but I don’t see him as being the long term answer for the Bengals at quarterback. While he has a nice deep ball, he can’t be relied on to win games and has racked up some terrible performances within the past year. Pittsburgh’s defense is exceptional, but Dalton regularly missed wide open receivers last week even when he had time in the pocket. Considering he has one of the best wide receivers in the game in Green, and one of the NFL’s better defenses, I think he underperforms almost every single week.
Though Green Bay will likely struggle to run the ball against the Bengals, I have no doubt in Rodgers ability to put up lofty numbers against this defense. Based on what I have seen from Dalton so far this year and his recent history dating back to last season, I think he will struggle in this matchup. I believe that Green Bay will not have trouble putting up 25 to 30 points in this game which should put the game out of reach for Cincinnati.
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