Iowa State hopes to not have its bubble burst as the Cyclones need a strong Big 12 Tournament run to get into the dance. They open with a quarterfinal against Texas Tech at 9:30 p.m. ET Thursday on ESPN2.
The teams split the regular-season series. Iowa State (20-11) channeled its Hilton Magic to win 51-47 early in the conference slate before the Red Raiders (23-8) avenged that loss with a 72-60 victory.
In that first contest, Texas Tech shot 18% on 3-pointers and was 6 for 15 from the free-throw line. Iowa State’s Izaiah Brockington led all scorers with 14 points.
In the rematch, Texas Tech still struggled on 3-pointers but was 29 for 38 on free throws while winning the turnover and rebounding margins. Iowa State shot 19% on 3s and was 9 for 15 at the free-throw line.
The line opened at Texas Tech -7.5 with an over/under of 125, which has moved to Texas Tech -8 with an over/under of 125.5 as of this writing.
Texas Tech’s efficiency matters
The Red Raiders are one of the most efficient teams offensively, ranking 41st while converting at a 47.0% rate from the field. Defensively, they force teams to shoot 38.5% from the field, the 10th-best mark in the country. Holding teams to 60.7 points per game is 14th on the season.
Texas Tech has kept its identity under first-year coach Mark Adams. The Red Raiders have four guys scoring in double figures, led by Bryson Williams 14.0 points per game. The others are Terrence Shannon Jr. (10.4 ppg), Davion Warren (10.1 ppg), and Kevin McCullar (10.0 ppg).
Iowa State’s strong defensively
Iowa State started the season 12-0 before stumbling to an 8-11 record to close the season. This third meeting figures to be a rock fight as Iowa State is also strong defensively, holding teams to 62.7 points per game, 27th in the country. Texas Tech’s 3-point shooting woes are no surprise either as the Cyclones are 18th, forcing teams to convert 29.5% of the time.
A talented 6-foot-4 guard, Brockington is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 17.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Tyrese Hunter is the other double-figure scorer and leading assist man with averages of 10.8 points and 5.0 assists per game.
Betting Prediction
Texas Tech covered the spread in both games. The Red Raiders are 20-11 against the spread and 15-16 on over/unders this season. They were 18-0 at home this season, 3-7 in true road games, and 2-1 on a neutral court.
Iowa State is 17-14 against the spread and 15-16 on over/unders. The Cyclones were 14-5 at home, 4-6 in true road games, and 2-0 in neutral-court games.
It sounds cliche but can Iowa State score enough points to win? The Cyclones are 277th in the country in scoring at 67.3 points per game to Texas Tech’s 72.4 points per game (144th nationally).
Texas Tech should win, but Iowa State should cover +7.5 in a defensive battle. It may simply come down to whoever hits their free throws.
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