The Los Angeles Dodgers took a 1-0 lead in the NLDS on Tuesday with a 5-3 win over the San Diego Padres. They will look to double that lead when they host the Padres again on Wednesday night. The Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -190 compared to San Diego’s moneyline of +160, with the over/under set at seven runs.
Los Angeles struck early in Game 1, scoring two runs in the first inning and three runs in the third. Of course, the Dodgers did nothing after that, as the Padres finished the game with more hits. But the LA bullpen threw four scoreless innings to secure the win.
Clayton’s Game
The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound in Game 2 of the NLDS. While he was limited to just 22 starts during the regular season for the second straight season, Kershaw was excellent when healthy, going 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He was also excellent down the stretch, posting a 1.50 ERA in September and helping the Dodgers win the last six games he’s started.
Of course, Kershaw doesn’t have the best postseason history for a pitcher of his caliber. He owns a rather modest 4.19 ERA in 27 postseason appearances and missed last year’s playoffs because of an injury. However, when the Dodgers won the World Series in 2020, Kershaw was 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA across five postseason starts.
Kershaw also has an excellent history against most of San Diego’s hitters. Manny Machado is 9 for 35 (.257) with three home runs in his career against Kershaw, although almost every other San Diego hitter has poor numbers against the lefty. The trio of Juan Soto, Jurickson Profar, and Josh Bell is a combined 3 for 24 (.125) against Kershaw in their careers.
Yu Time
The Padres will counter Kershaw with ace Yu Darvish, who will make his second start of the postseason. Darvish was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA over 30 starts during the regular season. He was also sharp in the Wild Card Round against the Mets, allowing just one run on six hits over seven innings.
His start against the Mets last week just continued what Darvish did late in the season. He posted a 1.85 ERA in September, pitching at least six scoreless innings in three of his six starts. Plus, including the win over the Mets, the Padres have won seven of the last eight games that Darvish has started.
One of those September starts included seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers in which Darvish allowed just two hits. Over four starts against Los Angeles, Darvish allowed seven runs over 25 innings, striking out 31 batters. The caveat is both Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman are .300-plus hitters against Darvish in their careers.
Singing the Blues
The Padres know they need to win this game and will be glad to have Darvish on the mound. However, including Tuesday’s game, the Padres are just 2-9 at Dodger Stadium this year.
With Kershaw’s historic dominance over San Diego’s hitters and Darvish having trouble with key Dodgers, bet on Los Angeles to win Game 2 on Wednesday.
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