Less than a day after the ALDS ended, the New York Yankees will kick off Game 1 of the ALCS when they visit the Houston Astros. The Astros beat the Yankees in the ALCS in both 2017 and 2019, so there is a rich history between these teams. For Wednesday’s game, the Astros are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -210 compared to New York’s moneyline of +175, with the over/under set at seven runs.
On the Rebound
Naturally, Justin Verlander will get the start in Game 1 of the ALCS. However, he’s trying to bounce back from a disastrous start in the ALDS, giving up six runs on 10 hits across four innings against the Mariners. Of course, that’s a far cry from Verlander’s track record in the playoffs, especially after going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA during the regular season.
Verlander also has an excellent track record against most of the hitters in New York’s lineup Josh Donaldson has had the most success, but even he’s just 9 for 35 (.257) with two doubles and an OPS of .630. The tandem of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are a combined 6 for 41 (.146) in their careers, albeit with four of those hits being home runs.
The Yankees advanced past the Guardians in the ALDS largely due to their power. Judge, Stanton, and Harrison Bader combined for seven home runs during the five-game series, helping the Yankees score at least four runs in four of the five games. However, the leash on Verlander could be short after his trouble against the Mariners, forcing the Yankees to deal with a deep Houston bullpen.
On the Tail
After bumping him from Game 5 of the ALDS after a rainout, the Yankees will send Jameson Taillon to the mound for Game 1 of the ALCS. Taillon made his postseason debut in relief during the ALDS but allowed two runs on three hits without recording an out. He’ll need to bounce back from that quickly if he’s going to match Verlander.
During the regular season, Taillon was 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA. But he did get knocked around when he faced the Astros in June, giving up six runs on 10 hits over 5.2 innings with a lot of the damage coming on a pair of home runs. In fact, Taillon allowed 26 homers in his 32 starts, so that was a problem for him in 2022.
On the other hand, nobody in Houston’s lineup has more than eight career at-bats against Taillon. However, the Astros have had success in a small sample size with the Houston lineup combining to go 10 for 32 (.312) against him. The Astros also feature the red-hot Yordan Alvarez, who had two home runs in three games in the ALDS, while Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, and Kyle Tucker are all coming off a productive series in the ALDS.
Staying Perfect
The Astros were perfect against the Mariners in the ALDS and won five of seven head-to-head games with the Yankees during the regular season. Barring another disastrous outing by Verlander, they should be able to take care of business against the Yankees, who played on Tuesday and then had to travel. Bet on Houston to take Game 1 of the ALCS.
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