The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to clinch a spot in the World Series on Sunday afternoon when they host Game 5 of the NLCS. Despite the Padres taking a 4-0 lead in the top of the first in Game 4, the Phillies rallied, eventually winning 10-6. After winning both of their home games in the series, the Phillies can end the series with another home win on Sunday.
The Phillies are favored to win Game 5 at home with a moneyline of -140 compared to San Diego’s moneyline of +115. The game also has an over/under of 6.5 runs despite Game 4 ending with 16 total runs.
Ace At the Wheel
The Phillies will look to Zack Wheeler to close out the series. Wheeler was the winning pitcher in Game 1, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing just one hit and one walk, striking out eight. Across his three postseason starts, Wheeler has allowed just seven hits over 19.1 innings of work while posting a 1.40 ERA.
Obviously, the Padres were shut out in Game 1, although they have scored 16 runs over the last three games, showing signs of life offensively. The likes of Josh Bell and Juan Soto also have excellent career numbers against Wheeler, so some of San Diego’s hitters have had past success against Philly’s ace. The problem for the Padres is that Manny Machado is the only member of the lineup who has performed consistently during the postseason.
The wild card for the Phillies in Game 5 will be their bullpen, which has been problematic for them throughout the season. The Phillies also had a bullpen game in Game 4 with seven different pitchers being used.
However, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, Philadelphia’s best two relievers during the playoffs, weren’t used on Saturday, so they should be fresh to pitch behind Wheeler in Game 5.
Yu the Man
The Padres will lean on Yu Darvish, who will start Game 5 after taking the loss in Game 1. Despite taking the loss in that game, Darvish allowed just two runs on three hits while striking out seven. Darvish now has a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs, with the Padres winning eight of his last ten starts dating back to the end of the regular season.
Game 1 aside, Darvish has always performed well against most of Philadelphia’s hitters. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have had his number, as both homered against Darvish in Game 1. But Darvish has been able to keep most of Philadelphia’s hitters in check, which is what happened in Game 1 outside of those two home runs.
Of course, after Darvish held the Phillies to two runs in Game 1, they’ve scored 19 runs over the last three games. True to form, the Phillies have been power-happy during the postseason, hitting 14 home runs in 10 games.
Harper, Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins have combined for 11 of those home runs, although outside of Harper and Jean Segura, no Philly regular has a batting average better than .237 during the postseason.
It Ends Now
With the Padres facing elimination and going against Wheeler, they’re in a bad spot in Game 5, especially on the road. It’ll be tough to get scratch out more than a run or two against Wheeler, while it could be just a matter of time until the Phillies get a homer from someone. Bet on the Phillies to win Game 5 and end the series.
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