The UFC is back after a week off and we have an event in Brazil for the first time since the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Headlining this event is Brazilian rising heavyweight contender Jailton Almeida taking on the UFC veteran and fan-favorite, Derrick Lewis.
Let’s take a look at this matchup and how it might play out. We will decide what the best betting pick to make is, and it will need to be creative to get the best odds on this one-sided matchup.
Jailton Almeida – Finally in the Spotlight
Almeida is one of the most dangerous men on the planet and at this point, he’s just waiting his turn to be the best in the world. With the heavyweight division being at it’s best ever potentially, the non-English speaking grappler will need to wait to get his shot due to his lack of star power.
This Brazil event is happening at the right time and it’s 100% planned out this way by the UFC brass. They are giving Almeida his moment to become a superstar. Taking out a former title challenger and longtime contender, who has one of the largest followings in the UFC would be huge for Almeida’s trajectory.
This main event slot might not put him in line for a title shot, but it puts him in line for a massive top-contender bout while waiting for the interim title to pass and for the Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic fight to happen in 2024.
Derrick Lewis – Too Many Negatives
Unfortunately for Derrick Lewis fans around the world, this is not the matchup you want for him at this moment. After a stunning performance in the summer where we saw a happy, confident, and fit Lewis, this is such a bad stylistic matchup for “The Black Beast.”
On top of that, Lewis isn’t fond of having to travel halfway across the world for a fight. Also, he was just arrested early on in fight week for speeding in Texas. All of these mental hurdles and distractions will make it tough to compete at a high level with them on your mind.
Stylistically, Lewis is not a grappler. He doesn’t have a good guard off his back, he doesn’t have elite wrestling to stuff takedowns and scramble out of bad situations. At some point, he’s going to be taken down and on his back with a monster on top of him.
Almeida vs. Lewis Pick and Prediction
After breaking down this matchup stylistically and watching the film on recent performances, the official prediction for this main event is that Almeida will win via submission.
He’s going to want a submission in front of the knowledgeable Brazilian crowd, and his grappling is levels ahead of Lewis. The athleticism and strength paired with elite BJJ skills is a nightmare for any heavyweight in the world right now. How could virtually a non-grappler be able to handle this?
The under 1.5 rounds is a great pick as well because if Lewis has a chance to win, he will have to knock Almeida out in the opening minutes. Almeida will ultimately take this fight to the ground and do whatever he wants while down there.
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