The top teams in the Eastern Conference meet at 7:30 p.m. ET Monday when the Chicago Bulls visit the Miami Heat. With a win, the Bulls could pull even in a battle for the East lead.
Miami (40-21) will be without veteran point guard Kyle Lowry (personal), who leads the team at 7.9 assists per game and chips in 13.4 points per game. What’s remarkable is what the Heat have been able to do without Victor Oladipo, who has yet to debut, and only three players with 50-plus games played.
Similarly, the Bulls (39-22) have not had Patrick Williams yet and have been without guards Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. All of which are expected back ahead of the playoffs.
The line opened at Miami -3.5 with an over/under of 225.5, where it sticks as of this writing.
Miami’s Metrics Matter
One of the reasons Miami has had sustained success, and really don’t get enough respect for it, is the job done by head coach Erik Spoelstra. He finds ways to get his 3-point shooters good looks, and the team has been strong defensively.
Miami is third in the NBA, converting 37.3% of 3-point attempts. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson have been consistent. But the emergence of Max Strus (40.2%) and P.J. Tucker’s shot-making (45.4%) have been as impressive and important.
Defensively, the Heat are fifth in the league, allowing 104.8 points per game and force teams to shoot 44.3%, also the fifth-best mark. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have a lot to do with that on the perimeter and around the rim, respectively.
Miami is on a three-game winning streak and has won eight of its last nine games dating to Feb. 3.
Chicago’s tall Test
The Bulls won six straight between marquee losses, including a three-point loss to Phoenix and a six-point loss to Memphis — both of which are top-3 in the Western Conference — with both being at the United Center. Monday brings another tough matchup as both teams are hampered at point guard.
Chicago is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls are eighth in scoring, with 112.6 points per game.
The Bulls are also the second-most efficient team on offense. Their shooting splits (all second in the league) are .482/.376/.815.
DeMar DeRozan is playing at a MVP level, and fellow new acquisition Nikola Vucevic is averaging a double-double. They’ve been a good pairing with Zach LaVine. Coby White has also taken a step while coming off the bench, and second-round pick Ayo Dosunmu has been an efficient shooter and leader.
Betting Prediction
Both teams are punching above their weight against this season. Especially the Bulls, who are 36-24-1 with an over/under of 32-28-1. They are 15-13 away from home.
Miami is 34-26-1 against the spread and, remarkably for how solid they are defensively, 37-24 on over/unders. It is also 20-14 at home.
The Bulls have gone under in four of their last five games, covering three of those five spreads. Miami is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five.
Chicago has a bit more of a level playing field with Lowry out, but depth may still be an issue. The hook isn’t great, but Miami -3.5 should be the pick until Chicago proves it can beat a top team.
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