Thursday begins a four-game series between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins. Despite being at the bottom of the AL Central standings, the Twins are home favorites in Thursday’s series opener with a moneyline of -170. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s moneyline is set at +145.
The Tribe swept Baltimore in a four-game series last week, only to lose three of their last five games. However, they’ve managed to pull within 2.5 games of the first-place White Sox. A series against the last-place Twins would appear to be the perfect opportunity for the Indians to keep gaining ground on Chicago.
Of course, the Twins have been a little better lately. They put together a five-game winning streak before losing to the Reds on Tuesday. The problem is that Minnesota is still 11 games under .500 and going nowhere in 2021 unless they can put together an extended winning streak.
La Makina
Nevertheless, the Twins are favored on Thursday, with Jose Berrios scheduled to get the start. Berrios is putting together another fine season as one of the bright spots on Minnesota’s roster. Through his first 14 starts of the season, he’s 7-2 with a 3.56 ERA, with the Twins winning seven in a row when he starts games.
On Thursday, Berrios will face a Cleveland lineup that’s managed a meager ten runs in its last four games. With Jose Ramirez in a deep slump and Franmil Reyes on the IL, the Indians are having a lot of problems scoring runs right now. The likes of Josh Naylor, Eddie Rosario, and Harold Ramirez have managed to pick things up, although it’s not been enough to keep up the momentum the team had last week when the Indians swept Baltimore.
Short-Handed
With Cleveland’s rotation hurting at the moment due to injuries, the Indians will send 24-year-old J.C. Mejia to the mound for his fifth career start. In four starts and three relief appearances this year, Mejia has posted a 6.11 ERA. He got knocked around for six runs on seven hits against the lowly Pirates in his last start, so he’s still trying to figure out life in the majors.
Unfortunately for Mejia, he’ll face a Minnesota lineup that’s scored at least seven runs four times in its last six games. Even with Byron Buxton lost to injury again, the Twins are starting to come around offensively. Nelson Cruz has heated up again over the past week, while Luis Arraez, Miguel Sano, and Alex Kirilloff have also provided a little bit of a spark for the Minnesota lineup.
The World Has Turned
It feels unusual to be favoring the last-place Twins, especially as favorites, but that’s the right call in this game. Even if the Minnesota lineup isn’t the most intimidating in baseball, Cruz and company are well-positioned to do damage against an unproven pitcher like Mejia. At the same time, the Twins have their ace on the mound against a modest Cleveland lineup.
As mentioned, Minnesota has won seven straight when Berrios starts. That’s more than enough to bet on the Twins to win on Thursday.
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