The big news in the NFL betting world this week is the point spread on the Jacksonville Jaguars/Denver Broncos game. The undefeated Broncos, which play the winless Jaguars at 1pm PT on Sunday, opened as 28 point favorites in Las Vegas. That is the largest point spread in the history of the NFL.
Betting action brought this line down to 27.5 points at local Las Vegas betting shops and as low as 26.5 points at many online sports books. Bovada, one of the most popular US facing books, currently offers the Broncos as 27 point favorites.
Other prop bets at Bovada involving the Denver Broncos include the team winning the AFC (-120) and winning the Super Bowl (+250). These are both among the biggest favorites ever offered after Week 5 NFL action.
The Twitter account operated by the Denver Broncos emphasized the team’s potential advantage over the Jaguars on Monday:
The #Broncos‘ 51 points in yesterday’s win are as many points as the Jaguars have scored all season.
— Denver Broncos (@DenverBroncos) October 7, 2013
The Jacksonville Jaguars voiced their displeasure over this comment:
Stay classy, Denver. RT @DenverBroncos: The #Broncos‘ 51 points in yesterday’s win are as many points as the Jaguars have scored all season.
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@jaguars) October 7, 2013
William Hill Jacksonville/Denver Prop Bets
William Hill posted several prop bets involving Jacksonville and Denver.
Will Jacksonville ever have the lead against Denver?
- Yes +260
- No -320
Will Peyton Manning break Tom Brady’s record of 50 touchdowns during one season?
- Yes -125
- No +105
Will Denver go 16-0?
- Yes +450
- No -600
Will the Jaguars go 0-16?
- Yes +700
- No -1000
Super Bowl odds are already posted at William Hill books. The betting shop currently offers the AFC as 2.5 point favorites over the NFC. The posted Super Bowl total is 52. The money line, which is based on the actual winner and disregards point spreads, is set at -145 for the AFC and +125 for the NFC. Bettors that feel Peyton Manning and the Broncos are set to blow out the NFC in the Super Bowl may place their bets now by laying $145 for every $100 they wish to win or by laying the 2.5 points at 11-10 odds. NFC backers may take the 2.5 points or win $125 for every $100 wagered should the NFC win the Super Bowl outright. The Super Bowl bets stand regardless of which teams compete.
William Hill has become a favorite sports book for Nevada residents. The company offers brick and mortar offices at many casinos, including Binion’s, Ellis Island, Hooters, Plaza, Riviera and The D. William Hill also offers a mobile app. Deposits for the sports betting app are accepted at brick and mortar betting shops and through kiosks located in PT’s Taverns located in the Las Vegas Valley. Deposits are also accepted at dozens of bars and casinos located throughout Nevada.
Station Casinos, South Point, Cannery, Rampart and Cantor Gaming also offer mobile sports betting in Nevada.
Be Careful of Large NFL Favorites
As Phillygambles.com points out, 8 of the last 9 20+ point NFL underdogs covered the spread. The last 20+ favorite to cover was the 1991 Buffalo Bills.
Three of the 20+ point underdogs that covered during this period were against the 2007 New England Patriots, a team that may be comparable to the 2013 Broncos in terms of talent. The 2011 Indianapolis Colts, which may have been as bad as today’s Jacksonville Jaguars, traveled to New England with an 0-11 record as 20.5 point underdogs. The Colts provided backers with winning tickets when it only lost by 7 points.
This writer picked up the Jaguars at +28 on Sunday. In my opinion, the Jaguars are a good bet if given 24.5 or more points. Even if the Jaguars fail to show up, there is enough value in the back door cover during garbage time to make it a positive expectation wager.
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