One of the best rivalries in college basketball gets renewed on Saturday night when the North Carolina Tar Heels host the no. 6 Duke Blue Devils. The Tar Heels trail Duke by just half a game at the top of the ACC standings, so first place in the conference is on the line. On the road, the Blue Devils are favored by three points with an over/under of 150 points.
The Tar Heels flew under the radar early in the season after losing to some of the better teams they faced during the non-conference schedule. But they are coming on strong lately with four straight wins. That has brought them to 16-6 overall and 8-3 in conference play, making them one of the better teams in the ACC.
Of course, it’s the Blue Devils who currently sit atop the ACC standings. Duke is also riding a four-game winning streak, bringing them to 18-3 overall and 8-2 inside the ACC. However, there are three teams that are just half a game behind them in conference play, so they need a win on Saturday to stay ahead of the pack.
One Big Star
Thus far, freshman sensation Paolo Banchero has come as advertised for the Blue Devils. He’s arguably the most skilled player in the ACC, averaging 17.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Duke also has a player in Wendell Moore who’s filling up the stat sheet in a similar way, averaging 14.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, although he’s coming off a disappointing two-point performance against Notre Dame on Monday.
In the backcourt, freshman Trevor Keels returned to action in the win over Notre Dame after missing three games due to injury. In his absence, Duke was getting great production from fellow freshman A.J. Griffin, who shoots 50% from three-point range and has scored at least 13 points in three of his last four games. The likes of Jeremy Roach and Joey Baker are also shooting threats from the perimeter, with Roach also being one of Duke’s best ball-handlers.
Man in the Middle
North Carolina is also led by a big man in Armando Bacot, who is having a monster season while averaging 16.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. The catch is that the Tar Heels don’t have the same frontcourt depth they had last season, although sophomore Dawson Garcia does provide some size at 6’11”. Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek has also been a steady rebounder for the Tar Heels in addition to being a three-point threat who can stretch the floor.
In fact, Manek is tied for the team lead in three-point field goals made while shooting 39% from the perimeter. That has helped to free up room for the backcourt tandem of Caleb Love and R.J. Davis, who are averaging 15.3 and 13.9 points per game, respectively. UNC’s reserve guards haven’t had a great year, but Love and Davis are both averaging more than three assists per game and shooting over 40% from three-point range, so they can carry the team a long way.
Time to Prove It
While the Tar Heels have put together a fine season and have great scoring balance, they’ve yet to find a standout win this season. Even most of their ACC wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the standings. They might be a little out of their depth against Duke, so bet on the Blue Devils to win and cover on the road.
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