A pair of teams in the thick of NBA playoff seeding battles go head-to-head as the Golden State Warriors visit the Denver Nuggets at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday. The Warriors (44-22) are a half-game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the second seed in the Western Conference. Denver (40-26) are tied for fifth with Dallas and 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota in avoiding the play-in tournament.
It’s the third game in four days for the Warriors, who suffered a 131-124 loss to the Nuggets at the front end of that. They were without Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who are not on the latest injury report entering the game. In that game, Denver assisted 39-of-46 makes while shooting 55% from the field.
The Nuggets could win the season series by winning Thursday. They won a previous game 89-86, with both teams missing some regulars.
The line opened at Warriors -3.5 with an over/under of 221, where it sticks as of this writing.
Leaning on Denver’s efficiency
Denver doesn’t play with the quickest pace but is third in efficiency, shooting 47.6% from the field. Defensively they force teams to shoot 33.9% from 3-point range, which is sixth in the league.
An anchor on both ends is MVP Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 26.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, and shoots 57.4% from the field, which all lead the team. But the team is showcasing depth, going ten deep into its rotation. Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, and JaMychal Green are all scoring double figures alongside Jokic.
Since joining Denver after 17 games in Milwaukee, DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 8.9 points in 14.1 minutes per game with a shooting line of .417/.364/.714.
Warriors need their balance
Last time out, the Warriors had six players score in double figures, including veterans Curry, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and young players Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, and Jonathan Kuminga. It came in a 112-97 win over the Clippers, who were without their top scorers.
Golden State has title hopes because they have an above-average offense and top-5 defense. They rank 11th in the NBA in scoring at 111.2 points per game and are more efficient at converting. They are sixth in field goal percentage (46.9%) and eighth in 3-point percentage (36.4%).
They are fifth in defensive scoring, allowing 104.9 points per game, and rank better in efficiency. They force teams to shoot 43.8% from the field (second) and 33.8% on 3-pointers (third).
Betting Prediction
The Warriors have been so strong on the road but are 17-15. Denver, meanwhile, is 20-11 at home. Golden State is 32-30-4 against the spread and 29-35-2 on over/unders. The Nuggets are 30-35-1 against the spread and 34-30-2 on over/unders.
Golden State has won its last two against the spread but was 1-7 in its previous eight games. It is also 7-2-1 on over/unders over its last 10.
Conversely, Denver has lost two straight against the spread and was 5-3 prior to that. The Nuggets are 5-4-1 on over/unders over their last 10.
If Curry and Thompson are in, the Warriors should have enough firepower to win and cover -3.5.
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