The MLB All-Star break festivities are underway on Monday night, beginning with the Home Run Derby. This year’s event figures to be extra special since it’s taking place at Coors Field. On the surface, all eight candidates would appear to have a great chance to win it, but let’s take a closer look at who are the favorites and who are the sleepers.
Shohei Ohtani, +260
Shohei Ohtani is the clear favorite to win the Home Run Derby since he leads the majors in home runs with 33, putting him on a pace to hit 60 this year. Of course, a derby is different from a real game, and Ohtani is on what most would consider to be the tougher side of the bracket.
Joey Gallo, +360
With Joey Gallo’s raw power, he has a chance to blast some long home runs in the thin Denver air. He’s also found his home-run stroke in June and July after getting off to a slow start, so he has a lot of momentum coming into the derby. Keep in mind that he’s used to selling out for power.
Pete Alonso, +500
Technically, Pete Alonso is the reigning champion after winning the 2019 Home Run Derby. Granted, there haven’t been a lot of repeat winners in this event. But that experience should pay off, as does the fact that he’s hit four home runs in 11 games in July. The caveat is that Alonso is switching up pitchers from when he won the Derby two years ago.
Matt Olson, +500
Matt Olson has somewhat quietly mashed 23 home runs during the first half of the season. He’s not the biggest name in the competition, but he has a legitimate chance of winning. Olson might be the best contact hitter of the eight participants, so we’ll see if that plays to his advantage or not.
Juan Soto, +850
Juan Soto hasn’t had the best season, but the guy has incredible power. He has as much pure strength as any player in the competition. Somehow, he has just 11 home runs this season, which is why he has longer odds than you might think. For what it’s worth, seven of those 11 homers have come in June and July, so he might be starting to find his stroke.
Salvador Perez, +1100
Salvador Perez has seen his odds grow increasingly longer since betting odds were first released. In fairness, it’s rare for a catcher to participate in the Home Run Derby. But there’s no doubt that Perez has plenty of strength and could be a factor.
Trevor Story, +1100
If nothing else, Trevor Story will have the home-field advantage in the Home Run Derby. That paid off for Todd Frazier in 2015 and Bryce Harper in 2018, so Story winning in 2021 would continue a trend of that occurring every three years. Perhaps the question is how much the crowd gets behind him since Story probably won’t be playing for the Colorado Rockies at the end of the month.
Trey Mancini, +1700
Anyone with a heart would pick Trey Mancini to win the Derby. A year ago, the guy was undergoing chemotherapy. While he’s yet to recapture the power he had in 2019 before getting diagnosed with cancer, Mancini does have the raw power to win a competition like this, making him the perfect sleeper pick.
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