The final tip-off of Thursday’s Sweet Sixteen games is an interesting clash of styles. A defensive-minded Houston Cougars team meets an offensive-minded Arizona Wildcats team with a 9:59 p.m. ET start in San Antonio, Texas.
Top-seeded Arizona (33-3) advanced with a 17-point win over Wright State and an 85-80 overtime win over TCU, which included a late steal that officials said should have been a foul to end regulation and possibly the Wildcats’ season.
Houston (31-5) beat UAB by 14 in what was a popular 12-5 upset pick by many, and then the Cougars pulled away from Illinois in a 5-4 seeded upset, 68-53.
The line opened at Arizona -2 with an over/under of 145. It has since moved to Arizona -1.5 with an over/under of 145.5 as of this writing.
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview: Pushing the Pace
Arizona’s offense ranks third in the country at 84.7 points per game and fifth in efficiency, converting 49.5% of attempts. The philosophies and execution mirror that of Gonzaga, where first-year coach Tommy Lloyd was an assistant.
Defensively, the Wildcats allow 66.7 points per game, which is 108th nationally. That’s due to the higher tempo because they are sixth in defensive efficiency, holding teams to 38.2% shooting. The Wildcats also pull in 39.2 rebounds per game, the third-best mark in the country.
They are led by 6-foot-6 guard Bennedict Mathurin, who averages 21.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game across five postseason games. Christian Koloko, a 7-1 center, is strong in the paint at 18.0 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game in the postseason.
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Defend and Rebound
Houston has the seventh-best defense in the country, holding opponents to 58.9 points per game, and is the best in efficiency while forcing teams to shoot 37.2% against them. The Cougars also rank well on offense, scoring the 60th most points per game with 75.9. They are 46th in field goal percentage, converting 46.7% of attempts.
A lot of transition points come from having the 15th-best rebounding rate at 36.7 per game. Houston also holds teams to 27.5 rebounds per contest, the 20th best rate.
It’s remarkable what Houston has done with leading scorer Marcus Sasser lost for the season with a shoulder injury. Five Cougars are averaging double figures in five postseason games, led by Kyler Edwards. He averages 16.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. His assists mark is third on the team in the postseason as Houston does a great job of sharing the ball.
Houston vs. Arizona Betting Prediction
Houston has covered nine of its last 10 games, including all five postseason games. For the season, the Cougars are 24-12 against the spread and 15-19-2 on over/unders. Arizona has a 20-15-1 record against the spread, and is 5-7 against the spread over the last 12 though 11-1 straight up, and is 21-15 on over/unders.
The Cougars will have a tough time matching up with the size of Arizona, but winning the rebounding margin will go a long way in Houston pulling off an upset in a quest to reach back-to-back Final Fours.
What they’ve done on the defensive end is impressive. It’s a question of whether the Cougars can score enough offensively and if Arizona is riding high on emotion. We’ll go against public money and take Houston +1.5.
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