A pair of double-digit seeds meet in the final Sweet Sixteen game of the NCAA Tournament when 11th-seeded Iowa State and 10th-seeded Miami meet at approximately 9:59 p.m. ET on Friday in Chicago.
The Hurricanes (25-10) have been playing great basketball over the last month and has extended that into the tournament with a 68-66 win over USC and then frustrating second-seeded Auburn to the point of folding in a 79-61 win.
Iowa State (22-12) lost its last three games entering the tournament but has continued to advance with an opening-round win over LSU, 59-54, and then beating Wisconsin, 54-49, in what was essentially a Badgers home game.
The line opened at Miami -1 with an over/under of 136.5. It has since moved to Miami -3 with an over/under of 131.5 as of this writing.
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Simply put, make shots
Miami hangs its hat on the offensive end as a top-100 offense nationally. The Hurricanes score 74.9 points per game, 83rd nationally, and are efficient in doing so. They convert 47.7% of field goal attempts, 28th nationally, and are 35.3% 3-point shooters, 99th nationally.
They are a porous rebounding team, ranking 338th nationally and pulling in 27.9 per game. Miami is also one of the worst defensive teams, ranking 229th in points allowed (70.8 ppg) which is a result of pace. Teams shoot 46.3% from the field (330th nationally) and 35.4% on 3-pointers (288th nationally).
They were outrebounded against USC but had three turnovers to the Trojans’ 18. Same story against Auburn with four turnovers to the Tigers’ 13. Taking care of the ball and making shots is Miami’s ticket to the Elite Eight.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Muck it up
Iowa State is the reverse of Miami: strong defensively, poor offense. Like Miami, part of that is pace. The Cyclones have the 27th-ranked defense, allowing 62.7 points per game, and hold teams to 29.5% on 3-pointers, 18th nationally.
Flip to the offensive end, and Iowa State is 277th in scoring (67.3 ppg), 178th in field goal percentage (44.2%), and 242nd in 3-point shooting (32.6%). Also, like Miami, the Cyclones struggle with rebounding, pulling in 29.1 per game (320th nationally).
Izaiah Brockington has been the one constant for this team all season, averaging 17.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. In the tournament, it’s been Tyrese Hunter and Gabe Kalscheur stepping up.
Betting Prediction
The Cyclones limped into the tournament with a 4-7 record since February, but they’ve won when it mattered. For the season, they are 19-15 against the spread and 15-19 on over/unders, including both tournament games hitting under. Miami is 20-14-1 against the spread and 20-15 on over/unders and, like Iowa State, saw both tourney games go under.
It’s a best-on-best game that will have clashing styles, which is always entertaining to see who pulls ahead in the end. While Iowa State’s defense has rounded into form, it likely can’t make shots with Miami (30th in effective field goal percentage). Hurricanes should win and cover three points to make their first Elite Eight.
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