The Big 12 race continues to heat up with a huge game on Saturday between the no. 17 Kansas State Wildcats and the no. 8 TCU Horned Frogs.
The Wildcats have won the last three meetings in this series, including a 31-12 victory last year. However, it’s the Horned Frogs who are 3.5-point home favorites in this game, with the over/under set at 53 points.
TCU remains among the nation’s undefeated teams after beating ranked teams in three consecutive games. The Horned Frogs have scored wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Oklahoma State to climb to 3-0 in Big 12 play. However, they aren’t even halfway done with their conference schedule in one of the most wide-open leagues in the country.
Of course, while they are 5-1 on the season, the Wildcats are also 3-0 in Big 12 play. Since a loss to Tulane in September, Kansas State has rattled off three straight wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Iowa State.
However, the Wildcats are set to face three straight ranked opponents, so they need to win this game to maintain the inside track on getting to the Big 12 Championship Game.
Up and Down
The Kansas State offense, especially quarterback Adrian Martinez, has been wildly inconsistent this year. The Wildcats have scored just 10 points in two of their games this year, including a 10-9 win over Iowa State two weeks ago.
But when Martinez plays well, he and running back Deuce Vaughn form one of the top rushing tandems in the country, as the Cats are averaging 244.5 rushing yards per game, which is among the top 10 rushing attacks in the country.
Meanwhile, the K-State defense has led the way when called upon, holding Iowa State to just nine points a couple of weeks ago. To be fair, both Oklahoma and Texas Tech were able to do some damage against the Wildcats, especially through the air.
Like most teams, the Wildcats are a little vulnerable against good quarterbacks, although they’ve been solid against the run this year, which is why three of the five FBS teams K-State has played have scored 17 points or less.
Mighty Max
For TCU, quarterback Max Duggan is leading one of the most balanced and dynamic offenses in the country. The senior has thrown 16 touchdown passes and just one interception this season while averaging 9.5 yards per pass.
Plus, Duggan and leading rusher Kendre Miller are both averaging over six yards per carry on the ground, which explains why the Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in all six of their games this year.
Of course, the TCU defense isn’t necessarily among the best in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs have conceded over 30 points in three of their last four games, albeit against four quality opponents.
For what it’s worth, the Horned Frogs have held up relatively well against the run, although they are still a little vulnerable on the ground and haven’t been that strong defending the pass, either.
Take the Leap
While Kansas State has some good wins this year, the Horned Frogs have proven themselves a lot more than the Wildcats. Plus, K-State’s passing game can be absent at times, whereas the TCU offense always has good balance, not to mention an experienced and talented quarterback.
In the end, the Wildcats won’t be able to keep pace with their run-heavy offense, allowing TCU to win and cover the spread.
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