CarbonSports.ag Game Line: Minnesota (+10) vs. Green Bay (-10)
Total: 48.5
We’ve got another NFC division rivalry game to start off this week as the upstart Vikings head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. Both of these teams are coming off impressive double-digit victories last week with the Vikings dispatching Atlanta 41-28 and Green Bay beating up on Chicago 38-17. I don’t think we will see both teams light up the scoreboard again this week as a short week and some divisional hatred should make for a feisty game.
Obviously Minnesota would love to slug it up a bit as they come in as double-digit underdogs for this contest. The Vikings got a bit of good news on Monday when it was announced that rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater has a mild ankle sprain and he expects to play on Thursday. Bridgewater looked very good in the win over Atlanta on Sunday and although it’s a very small sample size, Bridgewater appears to be the Vikings QB of the future.
He’s up against one of the best QB’s in the league right now in Aaron Rodgers as he and the Pack are coming off a strong performance in Chicago. Prior to that Bears game, Rodgers had told Green Bay fans to relax as he knew this offense would eventually come around, but they did benefit from facing a Chicago secondary that has been decimated by injuries and playing 3rd and 4th string guys that have hardly had any time together. Minnesota’s secondary isn’t spectacular, but they get more comfortable with one another with each passing week as their defensive-minded new HC Mike Zimmer has them trending in the right direction.
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they’ve been on the road on a Thursday night and 8-2 ATS against an opponent coming off a double-digit win. However, they are also 1-8 ATS as road underdogs of 4+ points when coming off a SU win as underdogs and aren’t likely to get the majority of support here even with all the points they are getting.
Yet, Green Bay is 0-4 ATS after scoring 35+ points and I’m not so sure the Packers we saw on Sunday against the Bears is the true identity of this team. Green Bay isn’t getting anything from RB Eddie Lacy and the ground game and the O-Line still has plenty of question marks concerning their ability to keep Rodgers upright. Seattle and Detroit’s front-7 wreaked havoc on that O-line in the Packers two losses this season and Minnesota’s got a stout D-line and LB core themselves.
Laying double-digit points in this league is always a risky proposition, especially when it’s a division rivalry game. Minnesota has always played the Packers tough at Lambeau and we don’t have to look much further than last year’s 26-26 tie when these two met here. Prior to that though, Minnesota has losses of 9, 38, 4, and 5 points in their trips to Green Bay since 2008, but they also have a SU win by 12 here (2009) when they were +3.5 dogs.
I don’t believe the Vikings will be able to pull off the outright upset in this year’s meeting, but I’m not passing up the opportunity to grab all these points on a short week.
Take Minnesota +10.
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