Playoff positioning is on the line over the NBA’s final three weeks, and this is an important game for the Denver Nuggets when they host the Los Angeles Clippers at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Denver (42-30) is a half-game ahead of Minnesota for the Western Conference’s sixth seed and avoiding the play-in tournament. The Clippers (36-37) are in the play-in field as of now.
Of the three times these teams have met, two games have been decided by two points, and the other was a three-point Denver win. The Clippers won an 87-85 at home on Jan. 11.
Paul George did not play in any of the three meetings, and he’s listed as out indefinitely with an elbow injury still. So, too, is trade deadline acquisition Norman Powell (foot), but the Clippers have gotten Robert Covington back.
The line opened at Denver -6.5 with an over/under of 219.5. The over/under has since moved to 223.5 as of this writing.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview: Inside-out offense
Reigning and likely repeat Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic has been dominating his way through another season, and Denver needs to continue to lean into that. Jokic is averaging 26.1 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game, all team-bests while also leading in steals, blocks, and field goal percentage.
While Denver is 12th in scoring and defensive points allowed, the offense has converted at the third-best rate this season. The Nuggets hit 47.7% of shots and are a league-average 35.5% from the 3-point range.
But it isn’t just Jokic on the interior. Denver defends well on the perimeter, holding teams to 34.2% on 3-pointers, which is seventh in the league. Jokic will open things up offensively for strong 3-point shooters Bryn Forbes, Monte Morris, and Will Barton, among others.
Los Angeles Clippers Betting Preview: Win defensive end
Neither team plays with great pace, so paying attention to the defensive end is key, especially for the Clippers without their stars. George has only played 26 games, and Kawhi Leonard has been out all year. Still, the Clippers are holding teams to 44.8% shooting (sixth) and 34.3% on 3-pointers (ninth).
Reggie Jackson has been leading the team in George’s absence at 17.0 points and 4.8 assists per game. Behind him are former Pistons teammates Marcus Morris Sr. at 16.0 points per game and Luke Kennard at 11.7 points per game on a remarkable 45.2% 3-point shooting clip. Both Terrence Mann and Ivica Zubac are also averaging double figures.
Betting Prediction
This Clippers team is stronger than it was the other three times they’ve played Denver, and now they have three days’ rest. This season they are 36-37 against the spread and 33-38-2 on over/unders. They are 16-22 outright on the road.
Denver is 32-39-1 against the spread and 38-32-2 on over/unders. This season the Nuggets are 20-14 at home this season.
Given the closeness of the other three games with similar lineups is enough to pick Clippers +6.5.
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