A classic 8/9 seeded game that features two well-recognized teams tips off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Thursday in Fort Worth, Texas. The Marquette Golden Eagles and North Carolina Tar Heels meet with a chance to likely take down defending champion Baylor in the Round of 32.
It’s a meeting between two teams that are more prolific offenses and less-than-stellar defenses. The game should be up-and-down with matchup challenges for Marquette against the North Carolina frontcourt.
Metrically both teams match up well. For as down as the ACC was, North Carolina (24-9) is 31 spots better in strength of record and was 6-8 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. Marquette (19-12) meanwhile was 10-12 in such games, so their strength of schedule was solid, too.
The line opened at North Carolina -3 with an over/under of 150. The lines have since moved to Tar Heels -3.5 with an over/under of 152.5.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Play through Bacot
North Carolina likes to run its starters and let them go, and they need as much as they can get from 6-foot-10 Armando Bacot, who was an ACC Player of the Year contender. He averaged 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. He’s a strong screen setter and is strong in the frontcourt.
Brady Manek at 6-9 helps space the floor with a 39.5% 3-point percentage and scores 14.4 points per game. Guard Caleb Love is a streaky shooter who can get downhill off a ball screen and is averaging 15.7 points and 3.7 assists per game.
The Tar Heels are 28th in scoring, averaging 78.6 points per game, and are 31st in 3-point percentage at 37.4% on 3-pointers. An underrated aspect is they are 20th in free-throw shooting, converting 77.0%. Bacot leads the 14th ranked rebounding rate as a team, which pulls in 36.9 per game.
Marquette Golden Eagles Betting Preview: Defend with depth
The Golden Eagles like to push the pace as well, scoring 74.8 points per game which is 88th nationally. But they are also strong defensively, and while they rank 226th in points allowed, they lock down in efficiency. Opponents shoot 40.8% against Marquette, which is 45th nationally, and 31.5% on 3-pointers, which is 70th.
Kur Kuath, a 6-10 forward, will have to stay out of foul trouble and should see an uptick in minutes from his typical 19 per game. But the Golden Eagles could go small and try to take care of the ball.
Justin Lewis, at 6-7, is averaging a team-best 17.1 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Behind him is star guard Darryl Morsell, who averages 13.3 points per game.
Betting Prediction
North Carolina is 16-16-1 against the spread and 19-13-1 on over/unders this season. The Tar Heels are 8-3 in true road games but 1-4 in neutral-site games, which the tournament is. Marquette is 16-15 against the spread and 15-15-1 on over/unders and is 4-7 in true road games and 2-2 in neutral court games.
One thing to not overlook is Marquette stumbled down the stretch a bit, going 4-6 over its last ten while the Tar Heels were 6-1 over their last seven. Bacot is a matchup problem, and Carolina should cover -3.5 as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
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