The NBA’s conference semifinals tip-off with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and second-seeded Boston Celtics at 1 p.m. ET at the TD Garden in Boston.
The Bucks advanced past the Chicago Bulls in a five-game series. The Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets.
The defending champions visit, perhaps, the hottest team in basketball to close the regular season and by handling the Nets, who at times in the regular season looked like the favorites, creates intrigue.
Boston is -4.5 favorites with an over/under of 217.5 as of this writing.
Milwaukee needs spacing
Part of what makes the Bucks so effective is they can clear out and let Giannis Antetokounmpo penetrate and get to the rim, or he can kick out to a strong 3-point shooting teammate.
Milwaukee is fifth in the NBA, converting 36.6% from the three-point range. Being able to have proper spacing is key to spread that defense out and have them cover more grown on kickouts and ball rotations.
Grayson Allen stepped up in the absence of Khris Middleton, who figures to be out at least another week. Allen scored 227 points in Game 2 and 27 points in Game 3.
The battle on the boards is another angle to watch. Milwaukee is second, grabbing 46.7 rebounds per game. Generating those extra possessions allows the Bucks to control the tempo as the third highest-scoring team at 115.5 points per game.
Of course, Antetokounmpo is leading the team in rebounding at 14.5 per game in the postseason. Bobby Portis adds 10 per game.
Boston’s strength better?
The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league, and it isn’t close. They are the top team in points allowed per game (104.5), field goal percentage (43.4%), and three-point percentage (33.9%).
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are a big part of that, but so has bringing back Al Horford and Daniel Theis.
Tatum averaged 29.5 points, 7.3 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game in the first series. Brown was behind him at 22.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. The duo has been difficult to stop all year, and the tandem hopes to carry that another series.
If Boston is able to generate a late lead, they should be able to close out the Bucks. Boston has the second-best free throw percentage in the league at 81.6%.
Bucks/Celtics Betting Prediction
So far, 51% of the money has the Bucks covering the 4.5-point spread, and that same percentage is on the over. Milwaukee was 3-2 against the spread, with the under hitting all five times in its series. Boston was 3-1 in its series against the spread with a 2-2 over/under.
Milwaukee (55-32) was 42-45 against the spread and 43-44 on over/unders this season and had a 26-17 road record. Boston (55-31) was 48-37-1 against the spread and 42-42-2 on over/unders and a 30-13 home record.
Straight up, the two teams split the season series, with the Celtics winning all four against the spread.
Expect a challenging series, but the absence of Middleton may show up more against the top defensive team in the league. On home court, the Boston Celtics -4.5 is our play.
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