When the Minnesota Timberwolves meet the Toronto Raptors at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the two will be fighting to avoid the play-in tournament in their respective conferences.
Minnesota (43-33) has an uphill climb, sitting two games behind Denver for the sixth seed in the Western Conference with six games to play. Though that includes their last head-to-head matchup.
Toronto (43-32) has a one-game lead on Cleveland for the Eastern Conference’s sixth seed with seven games to play. The Raptors are also a half-game within fifth and four and a half out of the top seed.
The line opened at Toronto -3 with an over/under of 228, which has since moved to 230 as of this writing.
Toronto Raptors Betting Preview: Control the pace
Two teams with slightly different styles, Toronto will want a slower pace. The Raptors are ninth defensively, allowing 107.1 points per game, but they are league average (17th) in efficiency. They allow teams to shoot 46.2% from the field and 35.1% on 3-pointers (16th).
Offensively, they are 19th in scoring at 109.1 points per game while being the sixth-worst team in efficiency at 44.5% from the field and 35.0% on 3-pointers (17th).
That being said, rebounding is key in controlling the pace. Toronto has the 10th best rebounding rate in the league, pulling in 45.4 per game.
Fortunately, they are relatively healthy, with Khem Birch (knee) questionable and Malachi Flynn expected back in early April. Depth has been the biggest issue, though, with five guys averaging 15 points per game or better, led by Pascal Siakam (22.5 ppg) and Fred VanVleet (20.5 ppg).
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview: Run and gun
Minnesota has been a team that likes to run over recent years, and that hasn’t changed. The Timberwolves are second in scoring at 115.4 points per game but 21st defensively, allowing 112.2 points per game. But their defensive efficiency is better, ranking 13th at opposing field goal percentage (45.5%) and ninth in opposing 3-point percentage (34.5%).
Malik Beasley is out with an ankle injury Wednesday, which certainly is a blow to wing depth. Jaden McDaniels is likely to miss the rest of the regular season, which leaves Minnesota without its fourth and fifth leading scorers.
But the big three of Karl-Anthony Towns (24.6 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.7 apg), Anthony Edwards (21.0 ppg), and D’Angelo Russell (18.0 ppg, 7.1 apg) are intact. There are complementary pieces that fill in around them on the wings, backcourt, and frontcourt.
Betting Prediction
Minnesota is 41-33-2 against the spread and 45-31 on over/unders. The Wolves are a respectable 18-20 on the road.
Toronto is 43-32 against the spread and 38-37 on over/unders this season with a 20-16 record at Scotiabank Arena, including a win over the Pacers over the weekend where a speaker caught on fire and the crowd had to be evacuated.
Fans are expected to be back in the seats and should have a good matchup with some star power. Two similarly matched teams should yield a good game, with each team coming off a game against the Celtics (Minnesota lost by 22 and Toronto won by three in overtime).
The Wolves should have the motivation to bounce back in the second game of a four-game road trip and cover the three-point spread and possibly win outright.
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