After a 3-0 day on Turkey Day, I move on to the rest of Week 13’s action.
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs +6 Total: 49
These two AFC West foes will meet again for the second time in three weeks. The first round went to Peyton Manning and Denver, a 27-17 win in Week 11. The Broncos now head to Arrowhead Stadium to try and win in Kansas City.
Denver looks to rebound from a devastating defeat last Sunday Night at Foxboro. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead before losing in overtime to the Patriots, 34-31. The loss gives Denver a 9-2 record, which is still sturdy enough for first in the division with their tiebreaker against the Chiefs.
Offensively, the Broncos continue at a near record pace, and there is little to think that they will change even against the Chiefs’ top defense. Peyton Manning picked apart New England’s unit last week before the defense blew a large lead. Running back Knowshon Moreno is questionable with an ankle injury but got in a limited session on both Thursday and Friday and is expected to play.
On defense, the unit had been impressive in recent weeks, that is, until last week’s debacle. Their secondary has several injuries, including both starting cornerbacks, Champ Bailey and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Though they both will not be at 100 percent for Sunday’s contest, they are expected to play.
San Diego has dropped two games in a row since their 9-0 start, after their loss to the San Diego Chargers last week, 41-38. It was their highest point total scored offensively and also given up by the defense so far this season. The Chiefs secondary was picked apart by Phillip Rivers all day long.
Though the Chiefs did a decent job holding Denver under wraps for much of their first contest against Denver, but they failed to sack Peyton Manning once and rarely even pressured him in the pocket. Linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are both likely to be inactive this week – the two combine for 20 sacks this year. This is a significant blow to a defense that was unable to pressure Manning in their previous meeting.
Much is being said about Manning’s poor games in colder weather because of Sunday’s chilly forecast at Arrowhead. He looked sharp in the game against New England, though Moreno’s ability on the ground certainly helped. Manning picked apart Kansas City’s secondary the last time they met, and he will have even more time to throw on Sunday afternoon with Hali and Houston sidelined. Denver wins this one big.
Pick: Denver -6(EVEN)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -4 Total: 45
These two AFC South Rivals met on November 14th, at Indianapolis, a game that was a 30-24 victory by the Colts. The Titans are on the fringe of the AFC at 5-6, but a win would be enormous for their divisional hopes as it would give the Colts another loss and even their tiebreaker.
Offensively, Tennessee has to be pleasantly surprised by the play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick who has played exceptionally well after Jake Locker went down for the season due to injury. He has thrown for 806 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his past three games. He led a game winning drive in the final minutes last week at Oakland, throwing a touchdown pass to Kendall Wright to give the Titans a 23-19 win.
Defensively, the Titans secondary has been one of the best in the league, but their defense has struggled stopping the run. They are giving up almost 115 yards per game via the rush and have shown little signs of improvement throughout the year.
At 7-4, the Colts have lost two out of their last three games and are coming off their worst defeat of the season at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals thoroughly dominated Indianapolis in Phoenix, beating them 40-11. Andrew Luck threw for just 163 yards in the loss, his second lowest output of his young career.
Defensive back Greg Toler, linebacker Kavell Conner have been ruled out this week, and their best cornerback, Vontae Davis is probable with a groin injury. This is not welcomed news for the Indy, especially with their defense struggling as of late.
All signs point to a Colts loss in this one, but I think they rally behind their young quarterback in Andrew Luck and get the win. Luck has never lost two games in a row as a pro, and I have little doubt that the Colts will be able to move the ball effectively against the Titans secondary. The unit is strong but has been a lot more vulnerable as of late. Coach Pagano will have an expert gameplan put together in this one, and they should handle their business at home against a Titans team that is currently overachieving.
Pick: Colts -4(-105)
New England Patriots at Houston Texans +9 Total: 47
The Patriots head to Houston one week after winning a thrilling 34-31 come from behind victory against the Broncos last week. The Texans continue to be mired in their season long slump in what had become a lost campaign several weeks ago.
New England heads to central-Texas winning three out of their last four games and their offense finally seems to be clicking. They rallied from 24 points down to beat the Denver Broncos – the most in franchise history – before winning the game in overtime 34-31. The Patriots offense is finally fully healthy, and it is paying dividends. Brady threw three touchdowns in last week’s win and had one of his best games of the year.
Houston has more than just underperformed this year and are in the midst of a terrible nine-game losing streak. They lost to another bottom-feeding franchise last week in a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars escaped from Reliant Stadium with their second road win of the year in a 13-6 victory.
Quietly, Houston has had a stellar season defensively. They lead the NFL in total defense with 290.4 yards per game and are first in passing defense. Defensive end J.J. Watt has had a sack in his last six games and their pass rush has been another bright spot.
I am willing to roll the dice with Houston in this spot. Their defense is one of the better ones in the AFC, and though New England has looked fantastic offensively for the past few games, we can’t forget about how they struggled to put up points for more than half of the season. At +9, it is tough to lay off this team, especially at home, despite their poor record.
Case Keenum has seemingly been “figured out” by NFL defenses, but he still has a plus matchup against a hobbled New England secondary. Top Patriots cornerback Aqib Talib should play in this one, but is battling a hip injury. Andre Johnson should be able to get deep once or twice over the top of Talib and the safeties and Ben Tate will find plenty of holes in New England’s depleted run defense.
Houston just needs to get off to an okay start in this game. If they should get a lead early, they should be able control the clock, at least somewhat with their short passing and run-first offense.
Pick: Texans +9(-130)
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