Sunday, September 14th, 2013.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts -3 Pick: Dolphins +3
Miami cruised to a victory against Cleveland in the Browns home opener last week, spoiling Rod Chudzinski’s debut as the new head coach. The Fins got a stellar game out of their defense and second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the 23-10 victory.
They head to Indy to face a Colts team that barely came away with a victory against the Oakland Raiders in Week 1, winning 21-17. It was a familiar series of events from last season. Another come from behind victory in the fourth quarter led by Andrew Luck, who like Tannehill is entering his sophomore season.
The Raiders, who most picked as the NFL’s worst team in the preseason moved the ball rather easily against the Colts defense which probably speaks more to Indy’s deficiencies rather than Oakland’s ability on offense. If Terrelle Pryor can be effective against this defense, then Tannehill should have a field day against a Colts squad that has struggled with their pass rush in Week 1 and in the preseason.
Wide receiver Mike Wallace reeled in just one catch against Cleveland for 7 yards but was covered by Browns All-Pro corner Joe Haden. He will face a much easier matchup this week against Colts left-corner Greg Toler. Brian Hartline got all the love last week in Miami’s offense as the Dolphins was essentially nonexistent, catching 9 balls for 114 yards and a touchdown. He should also have another plus matchup this week.
However, Miami’s real strength is their run defense which should render the Colts offense rather one dimensional, letting the Dolphins key-in on Andrew Luck and the passing game. Vick Ballard tore his ACL earlier this week in practice, forcing Ahmad Bradshaw into the starting role. Bradshaw did not play much in the preseason, and while he is an experienced veteran, he didn’t look like he was quite in NFL game shape in last week’s win over the Raiders.
I just see this Colts team as one that people want to see succeed but were extremely lucky to be 11-5 last season. Their margins of victory were razor thin last year (tons of Andrew Luck comebacks like last week), and that is not an ideal blueprint for continued success. Remember, this team was 2-14 two seasons ago. I’m not saying Indy is a terrible team, but I doubt they will sniff even 10 wins this season. The Dolphins are coming into this game with all the momentum and have a better overall roster, as well.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs +3 Pick: Dallas -3
The NFC East and AFC West collide in a battle of two teams that have something to prove, even after two solid wins to start off the season.
The Cowboys ended up stealing the headlines on Monday morning after beating the New York Giants in the season’s first Sunday Night Football game, 36-31. Dallas forced six turnovers in the game, including picking off Eli Manning three times and scoring on both an interception and fumble return. The game marked the first time the Cowboys beat the Giants in Cowboys Stadium since it opened in 2009.
The Chiefs’ win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida was even more dominant. Kansas City put a serious hurting on the Jaguars handing them a 28-2 beating and holding them under 200 yards of offense. Alex Smith threw two touchdowns in the loss, and Andy Reid earned his first win as the new head coach of the Chiefs.
Kansas City opened this game at -1 and money has been pouring in KC as they seem to be a public favorite, pushing the line to -2.5 and now -3. It likely won’t move past this magic number, and sharp bettors may push it back down to fewer than 3 before game time.
While most of America seems to buy this new Chiefs team under Andy Reid and Alex Smith, I’m not so sure it is going to be a long term solution to win games. While the dink-and-dunk passing game worked well against the Jaguars, I’m not sure it will be a viable gameplan against even most average NFL defenses.
Many are not buying Dallas’ new defensive scheme under Monty Kiffin, but I think they are going to be better than most think. This is a ball hawking squad that will take chances to create turnovers, not a team that is complacent. The Chiefs won’t throw downfield much unless they’re behind and I have no faith in their offense to lead a comeback bid. Jamal Charles will get his against this defense, but if they fall behind, we know that Andy Reid is often too quick to abandon the run game.
Tony Romo will face a tough Kansas City pass rush, but I think he will be fine with the number of weapons he has available. KC’s talent in their front seven is no joke but bettors and oddsmakers alike may be valuing them a little too highly after a dominant performance against an anemic offense like Blaine Gabbert-led Jaguars.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans -11 The Play: Titans +11
The Titans head to Reliant Stadium on Sunday to take on the Texans in a divisional AFC South battle. Both 1-0 to start the season, I think this game will show a lot about which direction these franchised are headed.
The Titans crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field to start the season, winning 16-9. Though the Steelers offense looked terrible in the opener and they suffered some massive season-ending injuries, I don’t think the public has given Tennessee enough credit for their gameplan.
Gregg Williams, who is notoriously known for his part in the New Orleans Saints bounty scandal took over the defense in the offseason and revamped the whole system. He likes to blitz, early and often. The Titans gave up the most points in the NFL last season, but they are going to be much better this year. Newcomer and long-time veteran safety Bernard Pollard looked outstanding last week notching six tackles against Pittsburgh and is a clear leader on this upstart defensive squad.
On the flip side, the normally dominant Texans defense gave up three first half touchdowns to the San Diego Chargers on Monday Night. To be fair, the Chargers did only gain 263 yards in the eventual loss. Houston rallied in the second half, winning 31-28.
How quarterback Jake Locker and the rest of the Titans offense matches up against Houston will be an enormous factor in how this one turns out. The passing game is hit or miss but does have tremendous big play potential with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt. Running back Chris Johnson does have a tough matchup but always seems to have a solid game against Houston. He has averaged 4.77 yards-per-carry in past three meetings between these two teams.
The Texans’ offense came on late in last week’s win against San Diego, but there are plenty of reasons to think it might have more trouble putting up points this year. Arian Foster is still banged up despite playing last week, and there is uncertainty in the passing game beyond Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.
Most importantly, Matt Schaub is merely a glorified game manager when it comes down to it. Houston could find itself in some trouble if they get behind early and if they are unable pickup the blitzes that the Titans will most assuredly be sending. I think the Titans defense is much more talented this year than most think and their offense will be sturdy enough to keep them in most games. At +11, the Titans are a terrific value.
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