Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings Pick: Pittsburgh -3 (-105)
For the first wager of the week, I head across the pond to the NFL’s yearly London game which is being played at the famed Wembley Stadium. Londoners aren’t exactly in for a treat with this matchup as both the Steelers and Vikings are winless after three weeks of football.
Perhaps a trip to Europe will change the Steelers fortunes, the last time the franchise started off 0-3 was in 2000, a year they failed to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh opened the season with an embarrassing 16-9 loss at Heinz Field to the Tennessee Titans and followed that up with another loss at Cincinnati, falling to the Bengals 20-10.
Last week, Pittsburgh welcomed the Bears at Heinz Field and didn’t fare any better. Pittsburgh’s offense outgained the Bears by 200 yards, but the Steelers coughed up five turnovers in the game, including two Ben Roethlisberger interceptions and lost fumbles. Pittsburgh rallied from 24-3 deficit, making the score 27-23 early in the fourth quarter, but Chicago returned a fumble to secure a 40-23 victory.
Despite the loss, there were some positives. Big Ben threw for over 400 yards and connected with wide receiver Antonio Brown, who had a career day receiving, catching 9 balls for 196 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Heath Miller returned to the lineup on a limited snap count and could be all-systems go on Sunday. Rookie running back LeVon Bell is expected to start for Pittsburgh this Sunday making his season and career debut for the franchise.
The Vikings, also winless have given up 30 points or more in three games this season. If the 0-3 start wasn’t bad enough, their first two losses came against NFC North divisional opponents. This puts them into a deeper hole than their record indicates. Minnesota dropped back-to-back games at Detroit, and Chicago to start the season.
In Week 3, they lost a 31-27 shootout against the visiting Cleveland Browns who started their backup quarterback. Minnesota was terrible offensively gaining just 195 yards of total offense.
Vikings QB Christian Ponder was injured in the loss and will miss this week’s game against Pittsburgh. Getting the start is now journeyman quarterback Matt Cassel formerly of Kansas City and New England. Cassel has not been a good in recent years; he was last in QB rating last season and threw 6 touchdowns to go with 12 picks with the Chiefs. However, Ponder has been a massive disappointment for Vikings fans this year, so it’s conceivable that Cassel could actually be an upgrade.
Vikings top cornerback Chris Cook is also out this week, boosting Pittsburgh’s chances of scoring through the air. Minnesota has been giving up significant yards against the pass all year long, so this injury is especially significant.
Both of these clubs are 0-3, but for me there’s a clear discrepancy of talent. Pittsburgh is better in all phases of the game other than running the football. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson makes that impossible as he is one of the best backs in history. It’s a testament to the Vikings’ incompetence that they can’t seem to win games with the best running back in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s offensive woes have been well documented, but fans and experts alike seem to forget how well their defense is playing and how pathetic the Vikings passing game has been. Cassel will be in for a rough day as he faces an array of Dick Lebeau blitzes and top Pittsburgh cornerback Ike Taylor will render Greg Jennings more useless than he already has been. This is a nightmare matchup for Minnesota’s offense, especially with a backup making his first start of the season.
Even though the Steelers lost last week, their offense finally started clicking. Big Ben was hitting receivers with ease but the turnovers just killed them. Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in pass defense and as I mentioned above, their top cornerback Chris Cook is out for this one. Roethlisberger should shred this defense and a healthy Heath Miller and LeVon Bell will only help things.
This game opened at pk, and if you got Pittsburgh early, congratulations. Both of these teams boast the same winless record, but in my opinion, the Steelers have a massive edge.
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans +3 Pick: Houston +3(-125)
The Seahawks visit Reliant Stadium in an inter-conference matchup of two teams with a surprisingly similar makeup.
The NFL’s most impressive team so far would probably have to be Seattle, though it’s a toss-up with the Denver Broncos. Nevertheless, the Seahawks are clearly the most dominant NFC team in the first three weeks and look to have their best team since their Super Bowl run in 2006. Seattle can go 4-0 to start the season for the first time in the franchise’s history with a win at Houston.
After starting the season off a little slower with a 12-7 win at Carolina, Seattle dominated San Francisco in Week 2, winning 29-3 at CenturyLink Field. Last week, in the NFL’s biggest mismatch so far, the Seahawks thrashed the Jacksonville Jaguars, routing the visitors 45-17. Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns in the victory and Seattle pulled most of their starters, including Wilson by the beginning of the third quarter.
Injury wise, the victory did hit them hard. Center Max Unger and right tackle Breno Giacomini are both doubtful to play this Sunday turning this into a bit of a makeshift offensive line. This is already on top of the loss of tackle Russell Okung last week, who hit the injured reserve with a torn plantar plate in his foot.
The 2-1 Texans haven’t had the great start to the season that they wanted but still look like solid playoff contenders. Their defense is ranked second in the league for yards given up to opposing defenses but has had lousy luck with scoring opportunities and special teams touchdowns.
Houston rallied in both Week 1 & 2 to earn victories. Starting at San Diego when they came back from a 28-7 deficit to win 31-28. Then again against the Titans in Houston, rallying late to force overtime and winning the game on a touchdown pass from Matt Schaub to rookie wideout DeAndre Hopkins.
However, their visit to Baltimore last week did not end up with a comeback. The Texans could get nothing going offensively in the 30-9 loss with their only points coming off three Randy Bullock field goals. Though, the Ravens weren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. They scored a touchdown off an interception return and another off a punt return. Their lone offensive TD was a run by Bernard Pierce.
From an injury perspective, the Texans situation has improved in recent weeks. Andrew Johnson is questionable but is expected to play. Matt Schaub’s left tackle Duane Brown did not practice Friday and is a game time decision.
As I mentioned at the top of this pick, these two teams are extremely similar in makeup. They both have ball control rush-oriented offenses and rely on solid defense and pounding the rock to get victories. Right now, the Seahawks are the best in the league at it, but the Texans aren’t far behind.
No one matches up well against Seattle’s defense, especially not Matt Schaub who is essentially a poor man’s Alex Smith. It won’t be impossible for Houston to score points, but it will be difficult. Houston is excellent at home, and they will need the crowd behind them in this one.
My main reason for this play is on the defensive side of the ball. The Seahawks will be fielding an offensive line that will likely have three different starters than it did on opening day, something that tough for any team to overcome. Facing J.J. Watt and the Texans second ranked defense makes it even tougher.
Russell Wilson will be harassed all day, and though he oozes talent, he hasn’t faced a matchup this tough. Seattle’s receivers are still an enormous question mark mostly because the Seahawks have not had to rally in any games so far this season. If the Texans could put up a touchdown or two early on, things could get interesting. This offense is not built to come from behind.
This is a classic cause of being “on the side of the books” and I feel strongly about it. Seattle is an excellent team, but they are being overvalued by the public right now.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs -5 Pick: Giants +5
It’s almost like the Giants and Chiefs switched places in the offseason. Most bettors wouldn’t believe you if told them that after three weeks, the G-Men would be on the brink of 0-4 and the Chiefs would be undefeated.
To say things haven’t gone well for New York would be an understatement. The Giants are fresh off their worst ever performance under head coach Tom Coughlin, a 38-0 shellacking by the Carolina Panthers, a loss that dropped them to 0-3 on the year. Eli Manning was sacked seven times in the loss only managed 150 yards of offense.
The Giants lead the league in turnovers given up with 13 and sacks allowed with 11. They are also last in rushing offense with just over 44 yards per game. That also doesn’t look to improve with injuries still ravaging their offensive line. David Baas and Chris Snee will both be out this week forcing inexperienced Jim Cordle and James Brewer into the fray. The defense has not been impressive either and will be without top cornerback Corey Webster, who has been ruled out with a hip injury.
The new-look Chiefs power running game and short passing attack has worked wonders in the first three weeks and there looks to be no reason why that can’t continue. The defense is also forcing turnovers, including five takeaways in last week’s win at Philadelphia. Andy Reid’s new team beat his former team by the score of 26-16 on Thursday Night Football.
Things don’t look too bright for the Giants based on how they have played so far, but I think they will find a way to get a victory this week. I need to throw out the Panthers game as a sort of an aberration and just call it a bad day, bad gameplan, whatever. Every team has one of those every once in a while.
It’s true New York is in trouble and need a win Sunday even have a chance of sniffing the playoffs this year. This is a veteran team with a two-time winning Super Bowl head coach and starting quarterback in Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin. I’m confident that Kevin Gilbride will put together a gameplan to attack this Chiefs defense, and Eli Manning and company will put up some points.
With all the Chiefs success, it should be noted that Alex Smith has been sacked 10 times this year which ranks among the league’s highest total so far. The Giants pass rush has been inept, but if there was ever a week to get it going it would be this one. Heavily focused on run-blocking, this is one area where Kansas City’s offensive line has shown some chinks in the armor.
Also, to steal from my Seahawks’ prediction line of thinking, the Chiefs haven’t yet had to come from behind to beat anyone. Alex Smith looks like a plus matchup against the Giants secondary this week, but they are playing so miserably that every quarterback would find them appetizing. Regardless, Kansas City has yet to have to rally and Smith is practically allergic to throwing the ball downfield. If the G-men can get a lead, they can blitz Smith more and force him off those short routes.
I’ll admit there is unquestionably gut-feeling element to this game, but I can’t help it. I can’t see the Giants going to 0-4. I think they pull out a big win at Arrowhead in an attempt to salvage their season.
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