NFL Week 6 – Best Bets Against the Spread

It’s already Week 6 of the NFL season and while we’ve hit a little bit of a rough patch the past few weeks but are looking to turn around with several big games that should provide some extra cash in your pockets by the end of the weekend.  I’ll be giving you my in-depth analysis for the Jets/Steelers, Jags/Broncos, Lions/Browns and Packers/Ravens.  Good luck this weekend!

– Joe

[Odds provided by Bovada.lv]

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets -3

Pick: Steelers +3(-135)

The Steelers are fresh off a bye, but still mired in season-long winless streak as they head to MetLife Stadium this Sunday afternoon to take on the so-far surprising New York Jets.

Pittsburgh is in unfamiliar territory with their 0-4 start to the season and after a week off they are hoping to refocus their efforts. Coach Mike Tomlin has banned games from the locker room and is looking to hold players more accountable for their miscues during this horrendous start to the season.

The last time we saw Pittsburgh in action was Week 4 in at Wembley Stadium in London, a game they lost 34-27. The Steelers were once again turnover prone and their defense was gashed by Matt Cassel and the Vikings receivers, along with a solid game from running back Adrian Peterson. The Steelers tried to get back into the game with a late rally attempt, but Ben Roethlisberger fumbled the ball to end the game.

It’s hard to look for positives for Pittsburgh, but rookie runner Le’Von Bell made an immediate impact on this game rushing for 57 yards and two touchdowns in his first career game after returning from an injury he suffered in the preseason.

Bell wasn’t the only one that made a difference in the Steelers offense last week, as tight end Heath Miller also made his season debut last week and was effective, hauling in six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. It won’t be long before the chants of “HEAAAAAAATTTHHHH” make their way back into stadiums again.

With Pittsburgh’s offensive line already shaky enough, both Miller and Bell will likely have to do some more blocking this week. Mike Adams is headed to the bench due to poor play and Kelvin Beachum, along with Levi Brown, will see snaps at left tackle.

The Jets have been the feel good story of the AFC so far this season, a team that many prognosticators picked to finish near the bottom on not only the AFC East but the conference. Led by rookie quarterback Geno Smith and a strong defense, New York boasts a 3-2 record after five weeks of football.

The Jets took another step forward last week as they won in dramatic fashion in Atlanta. Geno Smith threw three touchdowns, a career high and set up Nick Folk for a game winning field goal to beat the Falcons 30-28.

The Jets will likely be without two key players on offense and defense. Wide receiver Santonio Holmes is almost sure to miss the game with a pulled hamstring and Antonio Cromartie, the Jets starting right cornerback hyperextended his knee in practice this week is a 50/50 shot to play against Pittsburgh.

While the Steelers have been disappointing all year long, I think this is the perfect spot for this team to get their first win. You have got a staff of veteran Super Bowl winning players and coaches, along with young guns eager to prove themselves. Even if this is the beginning of a new era in Pittsburgh – this team isn’t laying for anyone, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

While the Steelers long stretch of not getting turnovers is well documented – it doesn’t necessarily mean they are playing terrible defense. They certainly aren’t a ball hawking group but their secondary is excellent in coverage, and there is still a fairly decent pass rush. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is salivating over this matchup against a rookie QB, and though Geno Smith has been impressive this year, this will be one of the better defense he has faced and the rookie still looks a little raw at times.

Ike Taylor will matchup against Stephen Hill, and the loss of former Steeler Santonio Holmes will certainly be felt. The same goes for Antonio Cromartie on the other side of the ball.

Despite the shuffling of the offensive line and all the injuries regarding the offense, I still think they can put up points. Having Heath Miller out there at full strength and the emergence of Le’Von Bell gives Ben more weapons and confidence.

The Steelers are not a good football team this season and may be heading for a rebuilding mode in the near future, but they should get their first win of the season this Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos -27

Pick: Jacksonville +27

In what has now been recorded as the largest opening point spread in NFL history, (the game opened at -27.5) the Jaguars head to Mile High Stadium to take on the Broncos. It’s about as lopsided of a game that one can find, at least on paper. Denver is massive favorites in this game as they look for their sixth win against the winless Jaguars.

There isn’t much good to say about Jacksonville who have struggled on both sides of the ball all year long. Their game against St. Louis last week was at least interesting for three quarters, an achievement in itself for Jacksonville, but they ultimately fell to the Rams 34-20.

Blaine Gabbert started last week’s game but hurt his hamstring and was spelled by backup quarterback Chad Henne who has started three other games this season for the club. Neither QB is anything even remotely special but Gabbert has thrown seven interceptions to go with just one touchdown.

Wide receiver Justin Blackmon returned that week from a substance abuse suspension and caught five balls for 136 yards and a touchdown. He will be an enormous help to Jaguars last ranked offense.

Jacksonville’s run game has been terrible, as well. Veteran running back Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging a meager 2.8 yards a carry and to make matters worse the Jags lost left tackle Luke Joeckel for the season after he fractured his ankle in last week’s loss against the Rams.

Denver’s 5-0 record to start the season is more impressive than most, especially since this team is on its way to shattering offensive records. The Broncos have won their last 16 regular season games and are averaging a whopping 46 points a game and nearly 500 yards of offense per week. Peyton Manning has 1884 yards in five games and has thrown a whopping 20 touchdowns to go with one interception.

The one pick came last week in a 51-48 shootout against the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. Denver notched their fifth win in that contest. The Broncos defense has given up a lot of points this season, but those stats are misleading due to the nature of their opponents always playing from behind. Still, they could use improvement in that area.

All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey will make his season debut this Sunday against Jacksonville, a move that will instantly upgrade a shaky Broncos secondary.

As dominant as Denver and Peyton Manning have been this season, I can’t possibly pass up +27 in a professional football game. I know this isn’t sound analysis but things happen, players make mistakes and Peyton Manning isn’t invincible, although it may seem that way.

Jacksonville has been kicked around by the media all week, and this game might as well be their Super Bowl. They are grown men and are no doubt focused and are sick of being the butt of every joke. Furthermore, I think the return of Blackmon could be a game changer, at least in the sense of a cover for Jacksonville backers. He’s a legitimate deep threat, and the Broncos will have a tough time matching up with him.

Other Picks

The above two games were my favorites of the week and my strongest plays, here’s a few more I have an interest in betting.

Detroit Lions -3 at Cleveland Browns

Pick: Detroit -3

I like the Lions heading to Cleveland despite the injury questions surrounding Calvin Johnson. To me it’s a solid bet whether Johnson plays or not. As of now it looks like Johnson will play Sunday but won’t be 100 percent.

Still, Brandon Weeden should not be an NFL quarterback and may be a larger drop off from Brian Hoyer than most may think. Josh Gordon will be an issue for the Lions secondary but I don’t think it will be significant enough to matter, and I still question if Weeden can get him the ball accurately.

The Browns defense is much underrated but they can be scored upon. Christian Ponder had his best game of the year against them and Buffalo’s one dimensional offense carved them up.

I’m not over thinking this game; the Lions are the vastly more talented team. Their road woes from the past aren’t a concern of mine this season. This team is better equipped to play on the road and is more confident.

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens +3

Pick: Packers -3(-115)

Another one that I’m not trying to over think but is also a bit of a “square” play. The Ravens have a better defense and they are playing at home, but that’s about all Baltimore has going for them in this matchup.

The Ravens won’t be able to stop Rodgers and company and their offense is terrible when they are forced to throw often or coming from behind. Joe Flacco has thrown 8 interceptions on the year and is clearly not living up to his massive record-breaking contract so far. Ray Rice notched two touchdowns last week but is just averaging 2.6 yards per carry.

The Packer defense is bad and even worse without Clay Matthews who will be out this week with a broken thumb. I can’t picture the Packers putting up less than 30 points in this game and I think that will be enough to outscore Baltimore. Other than Denver, who Baltimore lost to 49-27 in Week 1, this will be the toughest offense they have faced so far. The Raven aren’t up to the challenge.