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After a marvelous run following the Thanksgiving Holiday, I finally had my first off week in awhile going 1-2 with the picks. The Bears loss was absolutely brutal, but hey, there is always next week. I hope everyone had a fantastic holiday!
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts -1 Total: 46
This game is a rematch of two weeks ago, a game where the Colts brutalized the Chiefs winning 23-7 at Arrowhead Stadium. Indianapolis won emphatically last week 30-10 at Jacksonville while Kansas City sat most of their starters but still forced the Chargers into overtime, ultimately losing 27-24.
Winning football for the Chiefs is not something new. It was once a fixture for the people of Kansas City. This team one is made to win in the playoffs behind a strong running game and defense. While the Chiefs have looked terrible defensively for the past several weeks, they will get linebacker Justin Houston back this week, who should make a key impact in stopping the run and rushing the passer.
Andrew Luck and the Colts have a bright future ahead of them but like last year, but I do not think this is their season to make it deep into the postseason. I think their offense struggles and Jamaal Charles runs wild against their front seven. I expect to see an inspired performance out of KC this Saturday, and for them to move on to the Divisional Round.
Pick: Chiefs +1
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles -3 Total: 54
After failing to win the NFC South, the Saints head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Eagles on Wild Card Saturday. Still playing for seeding position last week, they dismantled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Super Dome, 42-17. Philadelphia won a winner-take-all affair for the NFC East last Sunday at Dallas. The Eagles looked a bit shaky at times, but held on to win 24-22.
I am going to stay away from the point spread in this one, not because I think it will be a toss-up, but because the total is a much more enticing play. I think 54 is much too high for this contest and could see this one going considerably under the oddsmakers’ projection.
Not only has New Orleans struggled to score on the road, (around 30 points at home, and 17 in away games) but starting running back Pierre Thomas will also likely be out for this contest. While New Orleans’ attack is extremely pass heavy, Thomas is the key chain-mover in this offense and will be missed if he cannot go.
The Eagles are known for their offensive prowess as well, but is it just me, or did Nick Foles look like a deer in the headlights in last week’s win over Dallas? Sure, he had an okay game, but Dallas’ defense was the worst in the NFL this season. The Saints secondary is their best defensive attribute and the unit as a whole has been in the upper tier of defenses this season.
Both of these teams will struggle to score in a game that has been touted as a shootout by the media. This matchup is not as it seems and I will be playing the under.
Pick: Under 54(-115)
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals -7 Total: 47
The Chargers are back in the playoffs after a three-year drought, but it has not come easy. After nearly falling out of playoff contention, San Diego gutted out a game against Kansas City’s backups last week to win in overtime 27-24. Cincinnati finished the season as AFC North Champions and beat the division rival Ravens 34-17 at Paul Brown Stadium last week to finish up their season.
This is the largest number of the week at -7, and I think it is more than justified. Many have begun this “team of destiny” talk with San Diego, which is totally ridiculous. This team barely got into the playoffs playing a team of backups. Phillip Rivers is a more talented quarterback than Andy Dalton, but that is just one piece of the puzzle.
The Bengals have a formidable defense, even with several year–ending injuries to key players. They boast a smash-mouth running game and matchup-proof receiver in A.J. Green. The Chiefs second string wideouts were gashing the Chargers’ secondary last week for big yardage. One can imagine the space Green will find on Sunday.
Cincinnati has not lost a game at home this season and has hung some serious beatings on some of the league’s best teams on their home turf. I think the Bengals win in a rout.
Pick: Bengals -7(+105)
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers +3 Total: 47
In a rematch of last year’s NFC Wild Card game, a game that San Francisco won on the path to their Super Bowl appearance, the 49ers will again head to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. This season, San Francisco beat Green Bay 34-28 all the way back in Week 1 at Candlestick Park.
The 49ers won 23-20 at Arizona last week as they tried to improve their playoff seeding, but still finished behind Seattle in the NFC West to earn a Wild Card Berth. The Packers beat the Bears 33-28 in dramatic fashion as Aaron Rodgers returned from injury to claim the NFC North title at Soldier Field.
The 49ers better record is not the only reason for the Packers being underdogs in their own stadium. It is because they are an awful football team that only won this division because both the Bears and Lions choked down the stretch.
The 49ers defense is worse than it was last season, but it is not the Mickey Mouse unit Green Bay they faced last week in Chicago. Rodgers still looked extremely rusty in the win, and his margin for error is going to be a lot lower in this one.
Furthermore, the weather is a going to be freezing and possibly below zero. Some may think this bodes well for Green Bay and hurts the fair weather 49ers, but I see the exact opposite. San Francisco’s rush base offense should have a field day against a terrible Packers’ rushing defense and the cold should force both teams to run more. Over the last nine weeks, they have been next to last in the NFL in rush yards given up per game and will still be without linebacker Clay Matthews who has been ruled out with an injury.
Rodgers’ return has come just at the right time for Green Bay fans, but it is not enough. Do not over think this one, take the Niners.
Pick: 49ers -3(+105)
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