The game of the week in college football this weekend could be the SEC West showdown between the no. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide and the no. 12 Ole Miss Rebels. At home, the Crimson Tide is favored by 14.5 points against the undefeated Rebels.
There is also a somewhat ambitious over/under of 79 points, which is a point total that’s far more common in the Big 12 than the SEC.
Of course, the Rebels have proven to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the country on their way to being 3-0. Ole Miss is averaging 52.7 points per game in wins over Louisville, Austin Peay, and Tulane. The obvious caveat is that they haven’t been challenged much this year, which will change when they travel to Tuscaloosa.
As for the Tide, Nick Saban’s team is 4-0 and has already beaten two teams that were ranked at the time in Miami and Florida. Alabama steamrolled the Hurricanes but barely escaped The Swamp with a two-point win a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, the Tide had an easy time with Southern Miss last week, winning 63-14, so the team’s starters should be well-rested for this week’s showdown.
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Through four games, Alabama looks very much like the team to beat in college football. While the offense was a little quiet against Florida after scoring 21 points in the first quarter, Bryce Young has looked comfortable, completing 72% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and just one interception.
There’s no shortage of talent around him, and while the Crimson Tide met some resistance against Florida, they should be quite comfortable back at home.
The Alabama defense has also looked solid early in the year, giving up 14 points or less in three of the team’s four games. If there’s one weakness that Saban’s defense might have, it could be the ability to stop the run, especially with a running quarterback. Florida rushed for 245 yards against the Crimson Tide, although not every team has the personnel to pull that off.
Kiffin’s Revenge?
Former Saban disciple Lane Kiffin will try to become the first of Saban’s former assistant coaches to beat him head-to-head. On paper, he has an offense that might be able to make that happen. Quarterback Matt Corral has become a Heisman contender with nearly 1,000 passing yards through three games, while the Rebels are averaging nearly 300 yards rushing per game.
Of course, the biggest question in this game is whether Corral and the Ole Miss offense can do that against the Alabama defense. The Rebels have held up better than expected on that side of the ball after a disastrous 2020 season. For what it’s worth, both Louisville and Tulane have looked far better offensively this year than they did when playing Ole Miss, so there is hope for the Rebels.
Roll Tide
There are simply too many questions about the competition Ole Miss has faced to believe that they can stay within two touchdowns of Alabama on the road. Saban should have a good feel of what Kiffin wants to do offensively and how to defend it.
Things will be tight early but look for Alabama to run away in the second half and cover the 14.5-point spread.
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