MLB’s Sunday night game this week features the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets in an NL East rivalry game. The Mets have taken the first two games of the series and are slight favorites on Sunday with a moneyline of -115 compared to Philly’s moneyline of -105. There is also an over/under of 7.5 runs.
Following Saturday’s loss, the Phillies have now lost four of their last five games, all against NL East opponents. On top of that, they’ve lost nine of their last 13 games, spoiling a 6-2 stretch earlier this month. Those recent losses have taken the Phillies five games under .500 and 9.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East.
As for the Mets, they have built a rather comfortable lead atop the NL East as we approach the end of May. Despite losing a series to the Giants earlier this week, they have won back-to-back games against the Phillies, giving them seven wins in their last ten games. That gives New York an 8.5-game cushion against their closest NL East competitor.
Going Fishing
With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on the IL, Chris Bassitt is the de-factor ace for the Mets, and he’ll be making his 10th start of the season on Monday. Bassitt is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA over his first nine starts. However, that ERA was just 2.34 before Bassitt got roughed up a little in his last two starts.
The good news for the Mets is they’ve scored eight games on consecutive nights, averaging 8.8 runs per game over their last five games. Through the first two months of the season, Pete Alonso has put up home run and RBI numbers that could make him an MVP candidate. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Jeff McNeil have all been scorching hot over the past week.
The Wheels on the Bus
The Mets will see a familiar face on Sunday when they face Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler. After getting off to a dreadful start in 2022, Wheeler has thrown at least six scoreless innings in three of his last five starts. In fact, he’s only allowed five runs over his last 32.2 innings, lowering his ERA to 3.38 over eight starts.
Despite Philly’s struggles winning games lately, the Phillies have been scoring runs with consistency. Before scoring just two runs in Saturday’s loss, the Phils had scored at least four runs in seven consecutive games. When he’s been healthy, Bryce Harper has been reliable all season, although Odubel Herrera and J.T. Realmuto have gotten hot lately to help him out.
Bringing the Brooms
With Wheeler on the mound and pitching at a high level, the Phillies certainly have a good chance to avoid the sweep. However, the Mets have been red-hot offensively over the last week and have also won eight of the 11 head-to-head meetings between these teams this year.
With Bassitt’s recent struggles, this is far from a sure thing, but with New York being 15-8 at home and the Phillies 10-13 on the road and 9-15 against teams with a winning record, the Mets are the best bet in this game.
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