Villanova and Providence are even in the win column entering a marquee game with the Big East title still on the line. Villanova (21-7, 14-4) hosts its rivals at 6:30 p.m. ET Tuesday with March Madness seeding also a big part of this. Providence (24-3, 14-2) has won five one-possession or overtime games this season and ranks highly in KenPom’s “luck” category.
The two teams met two weeks ago, an 89-84 Villanova win at Providence. Collin Gillespie was especially good, scoring a game-high 33 points.
The Wildcats shot 51% from the field and 48% on 3-pointers. Nate Watson led four scorers in double figures with 20 points on 6-of-9 shooting, but his team was 5-for-23 on 3-pointers.
Villanova was favored by nine with an over/under of 134.5 when the lines opened. It since has moved to Villanova -10 as of this writing.
‘Cats strong defensively
It’ll be interesting to see how the Big East handles the tournament seeding should Villanova win out with an uneven amount of games. Jay Wright has kept his rotation tight with seven or eight guys in it. It’s worked out well in the first meeting.
Villanova’s defense is 34th in the country, allowing 63.4 points per game on the year. Offensively they are above average at 73.6 points per game (116th nationally) and are the best free-throw shooting team in the country at 82.7%.
Gillespie has been great this season, scoring 16.6 points per game with 3.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Justin Moore is scoring 15.3 points per game, and then four more are between 9 and 10 points per contest. As a group, they rebound very well.
Philadelphia has been tough on visitors, where Villanova is 11-1.
Has Providence’s luck run out?
Ed Cooley has done a great job leading the Friars. Over their last five games, they’ve beaten DePaul in overtime, lost to Villanova, narrowly escaped Butler in OT, beat Xavier in overtime, and blew out Creighton. A remarkable stretch as they look to make a deep tournament run.
But they are susceptible as Providence is 145th in scoring (72.5 ppg) and 88th in defense, allowing 66.2 points per game. Though they are better nationally, forcing teams to shoot 40.9% from the field (48th nationally) and 31.3% on 3-pointers (65th).
The Friars have great balance. Watson leads the way with 14.0 points per game, and Indiana transfer Aljami Durham behind him at 13.3 points per game.
Providence is 7-1 on the road this season, with five contests decided by five points or less.
Betting Prediction
Providence is 16-11 against the spread this season and 14-13 on over/unders. They are 2-3 against the spread and 4-1 on over/unders over their last five games, though.
Villanova, meanwhile, is 14-13-1 against the spread and 14-14 on over/unders. They are 1-3-1 against the spread over their last five and 3-2 on over/unders.
Ten is a lot of points, even at home. The first meeting was a better shooting performance by the Wildcats, and playing at home should help, but Providence has been in a lot of close games. Villanova should win, but Providence should cover the 10-point spread.
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