The Green Bay Packers get their postseason underway Saturday night when they host the San Francisco 49ers. This will be the ninth playoff meeting between the two teams, including the NFC Championship Game two years ago. Earlier in the season, the Packers won in San Francisco 30-28, but the Packers are now 5.5-point home favorites with the over/under set at 47 points.
The 49ers pulled off the biggest surprise of Wild Card Weekend, beating the Cowboys on the road. With that win, the 49ers have won eight of their last ten games. That stretch includes two road wins against teams that are still alive.
As for the Packers, it’s been nearly three weeks since they were anywhere close to full strength. Green Bay had a bye last week and lost to the Lions in Week 18, with several key starters sitting out at least part of the game. On the bright side, the Packers were undefeated at home this year, including two wins over playoff teams.
The Pack Attack
Needless to say, it’s all about Aaron Rodgers, who had an MVP-caliber season for the Packers this year. The rest of the Green Bay offense has dealt with injuries and absences all season, creating question marks about the supporting cast. But Rodgers always found a way to make it work and will have his favorite target Davante Adams and two capable running backs at his disposal this week.
Perhaps the bigger question is whether or not the Green Bay defense can play at a championship level in the playoffs. The Packers were average at best defensively for large chunks of the season, giving up at least 28 points in five of their last seven games. However, the bye week could allow the Packers to get some players back and be as close to full strength health-wise as the Green Bay defense has been all year.
A Little Help
While he’s made some big throws when he’s needed to, Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown just two touchdown passes and five interceptions over his last three games. That means the 49ers are going to need to give their quarterback plenty of help, especially from the running game. Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel combined for 168 yards against Dallas last week and may need to post similar numbers this week.
Naturally, the San Francisco defense will have to pull its weight as well. After holding the highest-scoring offense in the NFL to just 17 points last week, the 49ers should be full of confidence, even against Rodgers and the Packers. With Nick Bosa cleared to play after an injury scare and San Francisco racking up five sacks last week, the San Francisco defense is in excellent shape right now.
The Right Formula
To win a playoff game at Lambeau Field, the road team has to be able to run the ball and play defense. The 49ers are able to do both of those things in addition to proving during the regular season that they can play competitive football with Green Bay.
With Garoppolo being a wild card, the 49ers still face an uphill battle, but they should be able to run and defend well enough to beat the spread.
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