A 7-10 game played in Indianapolis at 9:40 p.m. ET Thursday features an at-large San Francisco Dons from the West Coast Conference and undefeated Ohio Valley Conference champion Murray State. A pair of mid-majors meet with a date with Kentucky, the likely reward for winning.
The aptly-named Racers (28-2) like to do just that, get out and run. Of course, they are strong defensively, too, but played a weaker schedule with only six Quad 1 and Quad 2 games (5-1). They were 1-1 in road Quad 1 games.
San Francisco (24-9) was 9-8 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games but was 0-5 in road Quad 1 games.
Surprisingly, the line opened at San Francisco -1 with an over/under of 137 on over/unders. The line has since flipped to Murray State -2.5 with an over/under of 137.5.
Murray State Racers Betting Preview: Run and gun
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Murray State runs at every opportunity on a turnover or defensive rebound. It plays ten guys in its rotation, but none is more important than KJ Williams, who could be a breakout star in this tournament.
Williams averages team-bests of 18.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game this season. At 6-foot-10, he can play inside and out.
The Racers are 23rd in scoring at 79.3 points per game and is 21st in efficiency, converting 48.1% of field goal attempts. They also are 23rd in rebounding at 35.9 boards per game.
Defensively they are 21st in allowing 61.7 points per game. They hold teams to 40.7% from field goal percentage (43rd), 30.0% on 3-pointers (30th), and 28.0 rebounds per game (31st).
San Francisco can’t overlook Tevin Brown, who converts 39.3% of 3-pointers and is averaging 16.4 points per game.
San Francisco Dons Betting Preview: Score, stop, score
The Dons are also a team that likes to get out and run. They score 77.3 points per game, which is 39th nationally. They are top-100 nationally in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
Defensively they are 32 at defending 3-pointers, forcing teams to 30.1%. They also are strong rebounding at 35.0 rebounds per game.
Jamaree Bouyea makes the team go, averaging 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Yauhen Massalski, a 6-9 forward, averages 13.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
Betting Prediction
San Francisco may be a surprise pick to enter the NCAA Tournament, but wins over tournament teams Davidson, UAB, and a win at an average Arizona State program got them in.
The Dons are 13-18-1 against the spread and 16-16 on over/unders. They were 7-2 in true road games and 3-3 in neutral-site games, including meeting tourney team Loyola-Chicago in Utah.
Murray State is 16-12-1 against the spread and 12-17 on over/unders. The Racers are 11-1 in true road games and 4-1 on a neutral court with a 13-point loss at Auburn and a loss to East Tennessee State.
San Francisco has the pieces to match up, but there’s something to be said about winning, regardless of competition level, and the Racers have won 20 straight games and should top the Dons and cover -2.
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